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Holiday Sales Analysis: 2022 Insights

The holiday season is often the most joyous time of the year, but it can also be financially challenging with all the gifts, decorations, and travel expenses. In terms of consumer spending, only the back-to-school season surpasses the winter holidays like Christmas and Hanukkah.

To understand how retailers performed during the 2022 holiday shopping season, O1ne Mortgage analyzed data from the National Retail Federation (NRF). The NRF uses the Census Bureau’s November and December retail spending data, excluding expenditures at automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.

2022 Holiday Sales Performance

The 2022 holiday season was anticipated to be particularly strong for retailers, with most stores reopening for in-store shopping at full capacity for the first time since early 2020. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, in-store sales increased by 6.8% from November to December 2022. Online shopping also remained popular, growing by 9.5% since 2021, more than any other category.

As a result, the NRF estimates that holiday sales reached $936.3 billion in 2022, a 5.3% increase from 2021. This growth rate is higher than the average holiday sales growth rate of 4.9% over the past decade.

Holiday Retail Sales Trends (2002-2022)

From 2020 to 2021, holiday sales grew by 13.5% to $889.3 billion, according to the NRF. On average, holiday retail sales have increased by 4.9% year-over-year in the past decade. The NRF had predicted an increase of 6% to 8% between 2021 and 2022, but the actual increase was 5.3%.

The modest sales growth could be attributed to rising costs due to inflation and consumer concerns about a potential recession. A CNBC study conducted in December 2022 found that 41% of Americans intended to spend less on holiday gifts in 2022 compared to 2021. The average planned spending was $907 in 2022, down from $1,004 in 2021.

Change in Holiday Sales by Store Type (2021-2022)

Despite the slower overall growth in holiday spending, most categories still saw year-over-year sales increases. With 87.2 million consumers shopping online on Black Friday and 77 million on Cyber Monday, it’s no surprise that online and nonstore sales saw the most significant increase from 2021. Spending on groceries and beverages posted the second-highest increase, partly due to an 11.8% rise in the consumer price index for food at home from December 2021 to December 2022.

However, two categories experienced declining sales year-over-year: furniture and home goods, and electronics and appliances. This decrease could be due to continued supply chain issues delaying furniture deliveries or a sign that the trend of investing in home upgrades, which began during the pandemic, is now waning.

For any mortgage-related needs, feel free to call O1ne Mortgage at 213-732-3074. Our team is ready to assist you with confidence and expertise.

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